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Researchers predict that Texas is expected to have more days where it will be hotter than 99 degrees Fahrenheit, Florida is expect to see 200 additional days a year with high heat, and the Central US will have 250 additional hot days per year

The research from the First Street Foundation predicted that this summer may be unseasonably hot, causing hotter days to “double or quadruple” in 30 years.



A recent study that looks at how dangerously high temperatures might rise over the next 30 years paints a bleak picture for most of the country, particularly a sizable portion of the central U.S. where locals aren’t used to excessive heat.

An analysis and new heat model by the First Street Foundation predict that South Florida will experience the most increases in the number of extremely hot days. But according to the analysis, even some of the most northern areas in the country won’t be immune to the warming-related effects.

According to Jeremy Porter, chief research officer for First Street, a research and technology company in Brooklyn, New York, “extreme heat exposure is rising across the nation.”

The foundation examined the average heat index readings on the seven hottest days of the year to determine how it feels outside based on temperature and humidity.

The analysis revealed that 94% of the country’s counties could experience a doubling of dangerously hot days over the next 30 years as a result of climate change increasing their frequency, length, and severity.


More than 8.1 million people in 50 counties may endure at least one day with a heat index over 125 degrees the following year. More than 105 million people, almost a third of the nation, could live there by 2053.

The results add to previous heat research, raise concerns about how people will cope with the heat, and provide more evidence that local communities need to start preparing now, according to experts.

We have the resources necessary to address the issue of halting climate change.

The release of the new report coincides with a string of heat waves and record-breaking temperatures across the country.

According to the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, July was the third warmest on record in the United States, with an average temperature of 76.4 degrees that was almost 3 degrees above average. While Oregon just experienced its fourth warmest July on record, Texas suffered through its hottest July on record.


Depending on where you are, First Street’s 2053 estimates appear differently.

In Florida’s Miami-Dade County, the seven hottest days of the year feel like 103° or higher. By 2053, that might increase to 34 days.

Only three days a year on Massachusetts’ Martha’s Vineyard feel like 90 degrees, but that number might increase to twelve.

Three days a year could feel like 90 degrees or higher in Glacier National Park, which is located high in the Rocky Mountains in northern Montana.

Steve Keats, a native of Miami Beach, was not overly shocked to learn that days with a heat index of 100 or above may more than treble in Miami.


Heat and sea level rise are nature’s weapons against us, Keats declared.

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What is the report from First Street, and where can you obtain it?

It is the most recent in a series by First Street and its partners looking at warming-related risks in towns across the contiguous United States, including flooding, sea level rise, and wildfire. It is a peer-reviewed assessment and extreme heat model. Using intermediate global climate forecasts, the foundation and its collaborators compiled federal weather records, property records, satellite data, and other data for their model. It also took into account the presence of trees, paved surfaces, and water nearby.

The public can study at 30-year property trends and future property estimates using the Heat Factor tool, which is available at


Porter argued that by highlighting historical patterns, people will be more likely to believe forecasts because they will be able to see that there are more hot days today and a higher likelihood of heat waves and dangerously hot days.

A belt of heat appears.

According to First Street’s research, the number of days with the current hottest temperatures might more than triple by 2053 for residents in 430 counties across 16 states.

The counties and states that are expected to experience the largest growth outside of Florida and the Southwest are grouped in an arc that extends from Texas and Louisiana on the Gulf of Mexico up to Missouri and Illinois, as well as western Kentucky and Tennessee.

Because of the potential for exposure to extremely high heat index temperatures of over 125 degrees, First Street has labeled that area “an developing heat belt,” according to Porter. It’s “basically a bowl where high humidity sits, and it’s interacting with the rising temperatures,” according to a study of the low-lying area between the Rocky Mountains and the Appalachian Mountains.”


The location lacks the cooling effects of sea breezes found in coastal areas.

According to a USA TODAY report from 2021, the region has also seen a surge in heavy downpour occurrences as a result of the warmer Gulf of Mexico.

An investigation by USA TODAY How an unusually harsh summer exposes a startling change in how rain falls in America.

According to the First Street research, St. Louis and Kansas City, Missouri; Memphis, Tennessee; Tulsa, Oklahoma; and Chicago are the five metropolises with the greatest potential for extremely deadly hot days.

People in areas like Missouri and Illinois may be less prepared, less likely to have air conditioning, and more likely to face intense heat than residents of Southern states.


What additional hotspots are there?

The biggest rise in days above a 100 degree index, or a 600% increase, could be seen in two counties in the upper Texas Panhandle: Hartley and Oldham. Those top 20 counties also included counties from North Carolina, West Virginia, and Colorado.

When looking at the percent rise in days that feel warmer than 90 degrees, colder counties are more prevalent. Snohomish County, Washington, north of Seattle, might experience five days with a feels-like temperature of 90 degrees per year as opposed to just one, a 400% increase.

The West Coast of the nation experiences the largest cooling effect from the water despite having the highest likelihood of successive locally hot days.

Want to stay calm? 12 strategies to stay cool this summer


What do the forecasts actually mean?

According to Gabriel Filippelli, executive director of Indiana University’s Environmental Resilience Institute, the likelihood of heat waves and warmer nights is “very worrying.”

According to Filippelli, most people can tolerate one or two days of extreme heat, but after three or four days, certain physiological systems start to malfunction, particularly in youngsters, the elderly, and people living in low-income areas.

According to Filippelli, when heat waves concentrate in cities, nighttime temperatures don’t drop and residents receive little to no reprieve.

According to Ashley Ward, a climate health scientist at Duke University, this can lead to serious health issues: “What we’re seeing is that the body doesn’t have a chance to recuperate from any heat exposure during the day when nocturnal temperatures are high.”


threatening heat In cities throughout the East Coast, we induced sweltering “heat islands.” They are now becoming uninhabitable

To get ready, she argued, structural adjustments are required right away.

Keats, a shipping industry executive in South Florida, has taken his own precautions against heat exhaustion.

Except when I’m in or on the water, “I don’t venture out much until after 4 p.m.,” he remarked. Because it’s necessary to do so in order to adjust to the heat, I also take siestas on the weekends.

This interactive will teach you about heat: Heat domes up close and personal


For USA TODAY, Dinah Voyles Pulver writes about environmental and climatic issues. You can contact her at or on Twitter at @dinahvp.

Originally published on USA TODAY, this article says: According to current modeling, Florida, Texas, and Central US may have the largest rise in hot days.