Early in August, when people consider college football, they frequently consider team season win totals or futures markets for the Heisman Trophy or the national title. I prefer to seek for opportunities to gamble on or against teams over the course of a season as part of my preparation for college football.
For instance, after the Mountaineers went 0-4 straight up and 1-3 ATS in 2020, I wrote about fading West Virginia on the road the previous year. It ended up being a lucrative trend that continued into 2021. West Virginia had a 2-4 record both straight up and over/under. I search for information that might not directly apply to a futures bet but is nonetheless useful later on.
I have a few tidbits to share with you as we concentrate on the Big Ten this week.
support the overall under for the Indiana squad
The majority of the time, finding value may be found by looking at colleges that aren’t in the news since what good could a 2-10 team do? I guess I see a chance to stay on the fade train.
With only two victories over FCS teams Idaho and Western Kentucky in 2021, the Hoosiers, who enjoyed successful seasons in 2019 and 2020, suffered a setback. There’s a chance the Hoosiers’ losing streak of eight games in a row will continue, but I anticipate few points being scored on the way to those defeats.
Indiana was 110th in throwing yards and 114th in running yards the previous season. The Hoosiers lost their best running backs and wide outs this season, and they also changed their offensive coordinator. Additionally, they will have a new offensive line and Connor Bazelak, a transfer from Mizzou, will start at quarterback.
Despite having a 66 percent career completion rate, Bazelak has 17 interceptions compared to 23 passing touchdowns. The team total under is useful in this situation. Since Indiana is up against at least five defenses that ranked in the top half of the league for forcing interceptions last season, those interceptions could undoubtedly be a problem. It will also encounter nine defenders in the top half for restricting opponent points per game, six of which were in the top 30, and eight defenses that were in the top half for allowing the fewest opponent yards per play.
Indiana averaged 13.7 points per game, ranking fourth worst in turnovers, and had a season-high seven punts per game (second worst in FBS).
New components in almost every unit might be advantageous, but in a season of total rebuilding, I’ll be seeking to undervalue the Hoosiers. With contests against Cincinnati, Michigan, Penn State, Ohio State, and Michigan State, the schedule is also rather demanding.
Rutgers ATS fading at home
Rutgers is 8-14 straight up and 11-11 ATS this season under head coach Greg Schiano, who is in his third year back. But at home, Rutgers is 2-9 SU and 3-8 ATS. The Scarlet Knights scored 27 and 17 points per game during the previous two seasons, were rated 106th and 120th in total offense, and quarterback Noah Vedral threw for 16 total touchdowns and 15 interceptions. They lost their top running back, receiver, tackle, and one of their top two pass rushers for the current season. Why bring up the losses of some of the defensive players? The offense won’t have opportunities if the defense fails. The defense will get worn out if the offense has trouble.
Rutgers’ schedule isn’t ideal either. This season, the Scarlet Knights will probably face a lot of double-digit underdogs, but just looking at the home games, Rutgers will play Iowa, Nebraska, Indiana, Michigan, and Penn State. It can be risky to fade double-digit underdogs, but it shouldn’t stop me from betting on opponents as heavy favorites when the situation calls for it.
Another means of fading Rutgers and Indiana
You can utilize the opponents of the Hoosiers and Scarlet Knights as legs in your moneyline parlay if you enjoy betting favorites in parlays. You might need a few teams depending on the magnitude of the favorites, but if there’s one thing I’ve learned about gambling Twitter, it’s that people adore parlays with eight to ten teams. Ohio State can be included in that list of parlay legs. The Buckeyes are 23-1 at home under Ryan Day, but just 14-10 against the spread.
support the totals of the Ohio State squad
The Buckeyes led the nation in points scored per game, passing yards, yards per attempt, and points scored per play last season. There is no reason to doubt the legitimacy of QB C.J Stroud, and this offense should be just as deadly this year. After finishing 14-14 in each of the previous two seasons and 13-7-1 in the most recent two (fifth-best in the FBS at 65 percent), the Buckeyes have tended to be an over team during the past four years.
In terms of offensive touchdowns scored, the 2021 Buckeyes came out on top. Given that they will play six teams that are outside the top 50 in offensive touchdowns allowed, this could be advantageous when betting on the team total to go over.
Starting in Week 2 when Ohio State plays Arkansas State, which finished last season ranked 80th in passing defense and eighth-worst in touchdowns allowed, I’ll also be looking at Stroud touchdown props.
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